Global Rise Of Oil Prices Economics Essay

Global Rise Of Oil Prices Economics Essay Energy and Oil is a strategic commodity and very valuable to everyday life. Millions around the world are affected if there is a significant change in the price of oil, especially if the prices increases. The price is affected by two factors, supply and demand. If the supply is steady, stable and adequate to meet up with world demand there wouldnt be an issue. But this isnt the case, to say the least World prices of energy sources began to rise as early as 2005 and showed no sign of stopping, By march 2005 OPEC had admitted to losing control on prices and immediately sought to pump additional barrels but wasnt sufficient. In 2007 the price of oil nearly doubled and continued to rise into early 2008, leading on to the economic crisis. Gas, coal, nuclear energy and in particular oil reached soaring prices as high as $160 a barrel like someone had lost a grip on it somewhere. This price spike in oil prices is due to a combination of factors, first the Kyoto protocol that finally came into effect in 2007, the rising demand from India and china, the neglect from oil companies and investors as they search and research on other alternative source of energy. Political struggles, corruption and attacks on oil pipe lines in one of OPECs member country Nigeria. Where unrest in the African oil region has resulted to a lost in 175,000 barrels per day.  [1]  The fall in value of the US currency played a major role and is partly responsible, since the price for these commodities is typically quoted in US dollars. The financial crisis and recessions in the global economy also appears to have contributed to a substantial increase in speculative interest in energy future markets, helping to boost prices. World oil demand is expected to increase substantially until 2020 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA , 2006) while in the IEO (Independent Evaluation Office) 2009 projections total world consumption of energy is projected to increase by 44 percent until 2030 with most of its demand from non-OECD economies. . Although the price of a barrel has gone down in recent times and settled, the question is what happens in the event of another decline in supply or demand continues to persist, with failing and short term policies by the institutes involved, policies that fail to come together, correlate and aline with each other, ignoring the fact that the issue at hand if neglected again or not carefully managed can cause devastating effect to the world economies. Today oil has proved to be a powerful economic tool it has also proved to be a capable political weapon. In other words, oil contributes directly and indirectly to the production of all goods and services. For example, in 2003 oil as a source of energy accounted for about 37% of total energy sources. There is compelling body of evidence that oil production is determined by the interplay of institutional and economic forces. The issue is the policies that the key players implement from the U.S. to the EU and OPEC itself. Statement of the Issue/Problem: What policies energy institutes and oil producing countries including government bodies have to stabilize and control the market? There is pressure on the industry and oil market, with concerns about CO2 emissions and global warming since the time of Kyoto and increasing environmental awareness but no adequate policies to resolve the issue or at least one that works in the competitive and challenging industry. Background (of the problem): Oil, coal and gas currently provide more than two-thirds of the worlds energy and electricity, but also produce the greenhouse gases largely responsible for global warming. A number of models suggest that implementation of the Protocol will affect energy markets and oil revenues. At the same time, world energy demand is expected to rise sharply in the coming years, presenting all societies worldwide with a real challenge see appendix (1). Several factors as mentioned earlier has caused the previous drastic rise in price and decline supply. Presently as the prices continues to remain low the demand from Asia for oil is increasing by more than two million barrels per day  [2]  if demands from Asia grow significantly at such a rapid rate when prices are at a stable range then there are no doubts that prices would not and cannot stay low for too long ( Merlin Flower 2010) . Another issue is that of pegging, many oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait peg their currency to stronger currencies like the U.S. dollar. When we experienced the decline of the dollar during the recession their economies are relatively affected there after they let their currency float. A classic example is in 2006 when other countries with Kuwait leading the way unpegged their currency from the dollar following suit was the expected rise in energy prices. Speculations and uncertainty affect businesses and stock value not to say the least oil field services companies (Giuseppe Marconi 2008). Many oil-exporting economies argue that they peg to the dollar because oil is priced in dollars. Pegging their currency to the dollar eliminates the apparent mismatch between the governments dollar-denominated oil revenues and its local currency spending. The IMF after undertaken research indicates that a significant increase in price of oil on average leads to real appreciation of the currencies of oil exporting economies therefore might have been another reasons for their actions. This logic, however, fails to accurately diagnose the real fiscal problem of oil-exporting economies. Appendix (2) shows a list of major exporting economies and those that peg or float their currency. There is a growing view that, if nothing is done to cut the growing demand on world consumption of oil , there is likely to be an oil supply crunch within the next 10 years, Because oil consumption is responsible for some 25% of greenhouse gas emissions, efforts to reduce emissions would seem likely to affect the market for oil According to the economist in 2004 global consumption of oil increased by 3.4% , with nearly a third from growing nations like china where its demand is predicted to be about 16%. Supporting that is a chart from the European Commission in Appendix (3). Upon that there is insufficient investment by the international and oil companies many multinational oil companies are or have spent time buying their own shares rather than developing the society they present.  [3]  Although with the exception of a few whom participate in the development of their local economies but how adequate is this? If this is to happen, there is no doubt it might trigger another econo mic crisis and causing a global impact. Oil export revenues account for between 9% and 40% of GDP in OPEC economies, so reduced oil revenues means reduced economic growth. For most of its members which are developing nations a decline in economic growth has implications for their relative economies most especially unemployment for those with high population growth rate. So far all parties involved with significant influence in the market have policies of their own different interest. Policies tried have been short term policies and have proved no effect so far. A typical example of short term policy was in 2001 the U.S under introductions from the president, the U.S. announced it would release 30m of barrels from the Strategic petroleum Reserve (SPR) rather than selling the oil. Between August and November the department of Energy (DOE) requested offers for oil to be replaced back. These efforts proved to have back fired increasing the cost of crude oil having been handled in a clumsy and old fashion way. The U.S policy whether short-term or long term can have the long term negative effect of increasing the cost of crude oil. This showed the importance of set policies and reform in the energy market especially oil which the world depends on. If there isnt no change in policies the by 2015, then there is likely to be a future crash in the energy oil market affecting individuals across the globe either in little ways from transportation or domestic energy consumption. Critique of Pre-existing Policies: When it comes to policies either set by OPEC or the U.S. Energy policymaking in the past 35 years has been neither decisive nor strategic. The world can no longer afford to forward oil policies which we fail to implement. (Thomas D. May 2006). Previously OPEC adopted the quota system to limit its oil supplies to keep oil prices at certain levels. According to this system each OPEC country is allocated a specific level of oil production to limit total OPEC oil supply and thereby influence oil prices in the international market. In the late 19s around 1986, this system did not help OPEC to avoid the oil price collapse because most OPEC countries did not respect their quotas, Angola, Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria named the biggest cheaters. Bearing in mind These OPEC short term policies affect international affairs. It is thought that implementing the Kyoto Protocol will require a carbon tax (or equivalent) in Annex B countries, and this will raise the price of oil to consumers and therefore reduce demand there. Because these Annex B countries account for more than 60% of world oil consumption any significant reduction in demand there may well cause a decline in the producers price of oil on the global market. Further, if the principal mechanism by which Annex B countries reduce emissions is through a carbon tax, then this tax wedge may increase the rent that governments in energy importing countries have in the oil market, transferring wealth from oil producers to consumers (Mabey et al., 1997, p. 274). To put this in perspective, the G7 countries (US, Canada, Japan, Germany, Italy, Britain and France) already earn some 70% more income from oil taxes than OPEC members earn from petroleum exports (OPEC, 2001). So, through reduced demand, reduced price and reduced market rent it is thought that implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will reduce oil export revenues. Other concerns expressed by OPEC countries include the potential increase in renewable subsides, which they perceive to be given at the expense of other energy forms (e.g. oil) and discriminatory in nature (WTO, 2002. Problem is that everyone seems to have or develop their own policies from the Arab council to the European Union, all different policies different directions and interests. In the last few years OPEC agreed on a range of oil prices (ie between $22-28/B) and used its quota system to keep its oil prices within these limits. However, OPEC did not give any scientific rationale for this range or explain whether or not it was based on any scientific study. Nor did it say such a study took certain factors into consideration. In other words this price range seems to be arbitrary. On October 2007 in London the EU proposed new energy policies to come into place in other to tackle the challenging industry . The EU has clearly recognised that the internal energy market is the policy line that ensures fair prices to citizens and industries. At the same time, it guarantees that even smaller companies, for instance those that invest in renewable energy, have access to the energy market. Absent from this section of the initiative are measures to directly address the current peaking of internal Natural Gas production. Although put forward as so, market liberalization wont secure the increasing Natural Gas imports needed in the following years to meet internal demand. Lines of action to substitute Natural Gas or to secure other foreign sources simply do not exist. The main energy problem in Europe is not mentioned even less dealt with. These policies have a unique flexibility in that they can be used as a cure or as a weapon, but commonly their primary purpose is to promote or protect economic interests. Policy options and recommendations: As regards to reform of the oil or energy sector, in order to meet the requirements concerning the opening up of the market, an appropriate legislative and regulatory framework is necessary, in particular as regards regulation, and implementation of energy policy. Apart from the formulation and implementation of an energy policy, work should be concentrated on two aspects: opening up production, distribution, pricing and restructure of economic development plans by adopting efficient policies and procedures. There are several policy measures and recommendation that might minimise any possible losses to OPEC countries. One, assistance from developing countries to exporting economies to diversify sources of income, as models results show that economies with a diverse pattern of production and exports will be least affected by the Kyoto Protocol (Polidano et al., 2000). Two, OPECs share of oil market and cartel power would increase if there are measures to discourage the production of fossil fuels within developed countries Third, measures to abandon nuclear power generation would also favour oil exporters as more primary energy needs would presumably be met by oil. Fourth creating a situation where by countries wouldnt be able to peg theirs with another and jumping off once the market changes rather look to creating fiscal policy and finally the issue to sell essential and vulnerable commodity in a more stable currency like the euro, as the U.S. is unpredictable the least to say. However, this does not mean that all policies are going to be successful; they need to be well managed within a sustainable balance of power from global institutes. Appendices Appendix (1) Table 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 2006-2030 (Quadrillion Btu) Region 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Average Annual Percent Change, 2006-2030 OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241.7 242.8 252.4 261.3 269.5 278.2 0.6 North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121.3 121.1 125.9 130.3 135.6 141.7 0.6 Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.6 82.2 84.8 87.9 90.0 91.8 0.5 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.7 39.5 41.8 43.1 43.9 44.6 0.6 Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230.8 265.4 299.1 334.4 367.8 400.1 2.3 Europe and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . 50.7 54.0 57.6 60.3 62.0 63.3 0.9 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117.6 139.2 163.2 190.3 215.4 239.6 3.0 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.8 27.7 30.3 32.2 34.6 37.7 1.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 16.2 17.7 19.1 20.6 21.8 1.7 Central and South America . . . . 24.2 28.3 30.3 32.5 35.2 37.7 1.9 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472.4 508.3 551.5 595.7 637.3 678.3 1.5 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: 2006: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2006 (June-December 2008). Summary data on major oil-exporting economies Appendix (2) Country Oil and gas export revenues, 2006 (billions of dollars) Average oil exports, 2006 (millions of barrels a day) Population (millions) Exchange rate regime Change in REER, end 2001 to end 2006 (percent) Saudi Arabia 195.6 8.8 21.4 Fixed (to dollar) -22.2 Russia 190.8 7.4 142.9 Managed float (euro-dollar basket) 39.6 Norway 75.7 2.3 4.6 Floating 6.2 United Arab Emirates 70.2 2.2 2.6 Fixed (to dollar) -18.9 Venezuela 60.3 2.4 25.7 Fixed -25.6 Iran 60.1 2.4 68.7 Managed float 22.3 Kuwait 55.9 2.3 2.4 Fixed (to basket) n.a. Algeria 53.3 1.7 32.9 Managed float (to dollar) -22.0 Nigeria 48.5 1.9 131.9 Managed float (plans to float 2009) 12.8 Libya 38.3 1.3 5.7 Fixed (to special drawing rights) n.a. Kazakhstan 24.6 1.5 15.2 Managed float n.a. Qatar 21.9 1.0 0.9 Fixed (to dollar) n.a. Oman 16.4 0.7 3.1 Fixed (to dollar) -18.4 Bahrain 9.4 0.0 0.7 Fixed (to dollar) -25.4 n.a. = not available Note: Oman and UAE real effective exchange rate (REER) estimates are based on International Monetary Fund annual data, which end with 2005. For Nigeria, it reflects revenues of net oil and gas exports. Irans exports reflect its fiscal year 2005-06. Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics ; IMF Country Reports; BP Global (for energy data); national central banks; CIA, World Factbook (for population). Appendix (3)

Slaying the Dragon Essay -- essays research papers

Slaying the Dragon: How Asian Women were Portrayed in Movies â€Å"Slaying the Dragon† by Deborah Gee is a comprehensive look at media stereotypes of Asian and Asian American women since the silent era. From the racist use of white actors to portray Asians in early Hollywood films, through the success of Anna May Wong’s sinister dragon lady, to Suzie Wong and the ‘50s geisha girls, to the Asian-American anchorwoman of today. The movie also shows how stereotypes of exoticism and docility have affected the perception of Asian-American women. In many movies Asian women are sexually stereotyped as â€Å"exotic, subservient, compliant, industrious, and eager to please.† If not that, Japanese women are shown to be â€Å"inherently scheming, untrustworthy, and back-stabbing.† Whichever representation is used ...

What Was More Important In Choosing A Successor Religion

Although, source B and D have evidence that religion as still a slight factor that was taken into consideration. Source B is a historians summary of the events surrounding Lady Jane Grey brief reign. It begins to state how towards the end of Edwards reign he and Northumberland were very aware that his successor would be his catholic sister, Mary. They planned to alter the succession in order to ‘secure Protestantism. ‘ This part of the source clearly shows how determined Edward and Northumberland were at keeping the protestant rule over England.This is because they had spent Edwards rule converting the country to Protestantism and building up power under this religion and if this were then to be changed to Catholicism then the main concern would be the loss of power for some, including Northumberland. In a way, the reason religion was being considered over legitimacy is because Northumberland had convinced Edward to do so. There is no hiding the fact that Edward would do most things that Northumberland would tell him to so what would stop him from altering the succession act if that is what Northumberland wanted.If Protestantism were to continue as the ruling religion then Northumberland loud be able to keep his position of power and if this religion were to be continued with the rule of Lady Jane Grey then Northumberland powers would have increased due to the fact that his son was married to Jane Grey. Whereas in the second half of the source it says how Mary was decided as successor and done by the power of her legitimacy. She was crowned successor because she made it so there was ‘a much wider appeal to legitimacy and a careful avoidance of religious issues. People appealed because she avoided religion, showing that is was not an influential aspect cause people didn't have a great concern towards her being a catholic, and because she based her appeal on the fact that she was legitimate because her father was Henry VIII, the people cared mor e for the relationship of royal blood. The fact that this source is written by a historian is beneficial to the comparison Of which was more important, religion or legitimacy, because he's able to give a over view of the events without the influence of any bias compared to if the source were to be written by someone of the time.Overall this source shows how although religion may on been put into consideration ND may of been really important to others, it doesn't stop that legitimacy became the final decider of who would be successor; going against that ‘in 1 542 and 1 558 religion was more important consideration then legitimacy in settling the succession to the crown. ‘ Source D is also showing how both religion and legitimacy were used to decide a successor. Source D is written by a servant of the king of Spain from the courts deciding on the arrangements for Mays successor.Although it's written by a slave I doubt there would be much bias because he is a servant of the King of Spain who as no interest in the succession and the fact that he will not gain anything from this due to the arrangements in his and Mar's marriage contract. The source begins by saying how the Privy Council had to persuade Mary to agree to Elizabeth as her successor because Mary did not want this to be the case seeing as Mary had converted England to Catholicism after Edwards rule as a protestant and now another protestant would be placed in rule causing her efforts to become meaningless.However, she did agree but with the terms that Elizabeth will: ‘maintain the Old religion as the Queen had restored it; and he other that she will pay the Queen's debts. ‘ Therefore, Elizabeth is chosen as successor completely due to the fact that she has the highest standing of legitimacy but Mary does not want her efforts as Queen to be over looked and disregarded which is why she wishes for Catholicism to be maintained. This agreement is carried out even though Mary knows tha t Elizabeth is most likely to break those promises which show that all Mary truly cares about is legitimacy.As long as the Tudor blood line continues in power, religion does not alter the choice of successor. Again, religion may be considered and important to some yet the decision of successor will always depend on their legitimacy because that's what everyone knows truly counts. Both of sources B and D show how religion may of been important to certain individuals but legitimacy would always over rule. The power of legitimacy is shown within sources A and C; Source A is from the third succession act written by Henry VIII with the permission of the Privy Council.It states how after Henry and Edwards death, then the thrown should pass to Mary and her heirs, then onto Elizabeth and her heirs if Mary were to die without any children. Religion is not mention once within this source because Henrys main concern was to provide the thrown with Tudor successors for years to come. We can tell that religion plays no part with Henry because he willing left the Catholic Church and created the Church of England just so he would be able to have control and grant himself a divorce from his first wife and another to come.His many wives also show his determination to provide heirs to the throne because he had 6 wives in order to create a son who would rule England after his death. Henry was so committed to making sure that the throne would continue with the Tudor name. Also due to this act being passed with the permission of the Privy Council shows that they too do not care about the religion someone has, as long as they fit the part of being ruler of England. No mention of religion and no concern towards what the future successors religious preference may be, the only thing that matters is who will be in control of England in the future.Now for the third time its going against the original statement. Source C is also going against religion being more important than astigmatic. It is a response to Marry letters claiming her right to the throne. The Privy Council are telling Mary that it is Jane Grey who is the rightful successor to the throne due to letters Edward wrote before his death and that due to the divorce of her mother and Henry VIII it causes Mary to be illegitimate.Legitimacy is used within this source to strengthen the position of Lady Jane Grey and weaken the position of Mary. They use it to say that Jane Grey is clearly the right successor because she has a relation to Henry VIII, yet even though Mary is his daughter they choose to disregard her because of a succession act that called her illegitimate even though later on that succession act was over thrown by the third succession act.Even though religion isn't mentioned we know that this response has been written because Edward was desperate to have a protestant as his SUccessor which is why so much weight is put on Edwards ‘Great seal of England. ‘ The PRI,y Council know they h ave a very slim chance at making Jane Grey successor over Mary' but they were willing to try. Yet in the sense of this source it heavily relies on legitimacy, even though Jane Grey isn't the true person to be next in line. The Privy Council have an agenda and purpose that they are trying very hard to fulfill.However, we know that they actually failed to place Lady Jane Grey as the rightful ruler of England because Mary was able to gain the support of the people who believed and knew she was the rightful successor due to her father being Henry VIII and Lady Jane Grey only being a cousin. This source shows how true legitimacy is much more powerful than the word of an existing King. Over all, there is without a doubt that between 1542 and 1 558 elision was not more of an important consideration over legitimacy when it came to choosing a successor.

Macbeth, By William Shakespeare - 1926 Words

Macbeth is the epitome of an all time classic play written by genius and legendary playwright, William Shakespeare. Macbeth also holds the distinction that among his surviving tragedies, also called Shakespearean tragedies, it happens to be the shortest play. Macbeth is written on the exploits of King Macbeth of Scotland and tackles core themes such as the lust for power and betrayal by trusted people. Macbeth is designated as a tragedy based on many factors top of which, is that it is depicts real suffering, both physical and emotional. The play makes a connection between the dimensions of the Greeks based on their outlook on matters to do with destiny as well as the dimensions based on personal and individual aspersions based on the Renaissance dimensions. This paper aims to expound more on the reasons aspects of tragedy in the play and their effect and impact on the overall outcome of the story. Due analysis will also be given on three core templates of the play, namely prophecy, natural/unnatural and the guilt and remorse. Prophecy Macbeth has an intriguing plot that is interestingly thrown into action through the power of prophecy beholden to some three witches. Upon being told that he will be king of Scotland, Macbeth and Lady Macbeth, his ruthless ambition is thrown into action and the couple starts scheming of ways to kill Duncan and thereafter Banquo. This then leads to a great ponder, were it not for the prophecy, would the turn of events have been any differentShow MoreRelatedMacbeth by William Shakespeare770 Words   |  3 PagesThe play Macbeth is written by William Shakespeare. It is believed to be written between 1603 and 1607 and set in eleventh century Scotland. It is also believed to be first performed in 1606. It is considered to be one of the darkest and most powerful tragedies. 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Macbeth’s moral compass is not resilient enough to withstand his wife’s manipulations and he is provoked to act on his malicious thoughts of murder. The author explores the terrible effects that ambition and guilt can haveRead MoreMacbeth, By William Shakespeare Essay1487 Words   |  6 Pagesreaction†. Macbeth by William Shakespeare is a tale which illuminates the consequences of violating the â€Å"Natural order†, the hierarchy of beings in the universe. When Macbeth, a warrior wel l-known for his courage and bravery, murders King Duncan acting on his unchecked ambition to claim the throne, the order was disrupted, the result†¦chaos. Shakespeare uses symbolism to illustrate the atmosphere of the play as the natural order is flung into a state of turmoil. These techniques used by Shakespeare is usedRead MoreMacbeth, By William Shakespeare1483 Words   |  6 Pagesdifferent references in the play of how a king deals with power and if they use it for better or for their own personal gain. 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What is unique about blood in Macbeth is that the â€Å"imaginary blood† or the guilt that the murderer feels plays more of a role of understand and amplifying the theme of the play, that blood is guiltRead MoreMacbeth, By William Shakespeare1431 Words   |  6 Pages Macbeth, though originally a valiant and prudent soldier, deteriorates into an unwise king whose rash decisions conclusively end in the atrophy of his title, power, and position. Several facto rs contribute to the downfall of Macbeth, which produce a contagion effect and ultimately end with his demise. He receives help from his â€Å"inner ambitions and external urgings† which result in his downfall (Bernad 49). The â€Å"external urgings† consist of the weird sisters who disclose his prophecies, which enlightenRead MoreMacbeth, By William Shakespeare2060 Words   |  9 Pagesthe green one red Macbeth Quote (Act II, Sc. II). Out, out, brief candle! Life s but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Macbeth Quote (Act V, Scene V). These quotes have been taken from play Macbeth written by William Shakespeare. Like these quotes there are hundreds and thousands of such heart touching quotes written by Shakespeare in his many different